Surging job market could prove costly for households, businesses
WASHINGTON — U.S. job growth surged and unemployment fell last month, an unexpected show of strength that may prove costly to homebuyers and businesses who were counting on sharply lower interest rates to lower the cost of buying everything from refrigerators to homes.
Employers added 256,000 jobs last month, up from 212,000 in November, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Unemployment, which was expected to hover around 4.2%, fell to 4.1% last month. Health care companies added 46,000 jobs, retailers 43,000 and government agencies at the federal, state and local levels 33,000.
The final jobs report of 2024 underscores that the economy and hiring were able to grow at a solid pace even with interest rates much higher than they were before the pandemic. As a result, the Federal Reserve could be much less likely to cut borrowing costs again in the coming months. The Fed cut its rate three times last year in part out of concern that hiring and growth were flagging.
Overall, the solid jobs figures suggest the economy is entering a post-COVID period of steady growth, higher interest rates, low unemployment, and slightly elevated inflation.
“There’s just no need for additional cuts in the Fed’s rate any time soon,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an accounting and tax advisory firm.
Brusuelas says that the economy, fueled in part by greater productivity, can grow at a steadily faster rate than it has since the Great Recession 16 years ago. Low unemployment can fuel healthy consumer spending. Yet greater demand can also push up inflation.
“The economy is going to grow at a much higher equilibrium level, which implies higher inflation and higher interest rates relative to what we got used to from 2000 to 2020,” he said.
The U.S. continued to create jobs steadily throughout 2024, 2.2 million in all. That is down from job growth of 3 million in 2023, 4.5 million in 2022 and a record 6.4 million in 2021 as the economy bounced back from massive COVID-19 layoffs. But last year’s average of 186,000 new jobs a month still slightly exceeds the pre-pandemic average of 182,000 from 2016-2019, solid years for the economy.
U.S. markets tumbled on the release of December’s jobs numbers as investors sensed the odds of further interest rate cuts have faded. But rates are still painfully high for Americans trying to buy a house, a car, or even a kitchen appliance. Mortgage rates have risen for four consecutive weeks to reach the highest level since July.
Average hourly wages rose 0.3% from November and 3.9% from a year earlier. The year-over-year wage gain was slightly less than economists had forecast.
Over the past few years, the strength of the U.S. economy and the job market have surprised almost everyone. Responding to inflation that hit a four-decade high two and a half years ago, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate – the fed funds rate — 11 times in 2022 and 2023, pushing it to the highest level in more than two decades.
A much-anticipated recession never happened. Companies kept hiring, consumers kept spending, and the economy continued to roll. In fact, U.S. gross domestic product – the nation’s output of goods and services — has expanded at a robust annual pace of 3% or more in four of the last five quarters.